The final Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of the Virginia gubernatorial race finds Democrat Abigail Spanberger with an 11-point lead ahead of Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, leading 55% to 44%. Since last month’s survey, Spanberger gained three points while Earle-Sears gained two.
“Heading into Election Day, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has solidified her status as the frontrunner in the race for Governor,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “A sign of Spanberger’s growing strength is among men, a group that was evenly divided last month but now breaks for her by six points, 52% to 46%. These voters backed Governor Youngkin by about nine points in 2021.”
In the race for Attorney General, 49% support Democrat Jay Jones and 47% incumbent Republican Jason Miyares; 4% are undecided. Including which candidate undecided voters lean toward, Jones’ overall support increases to 51% and Miyares to 49%.
“Unlike the governor’s race, early and likely voters split in opposite directions: those who have already voted favor Jones 56% to 44%, while those yet to vote back Miyares 50% to 43%,” Kimball noted. “Men break for Miyares 50% to 46%, while women side with Jones 51% to 45%.”
President Donald Trump holds a 45% job approval rating among Virginia voters, while 54% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Glenn Youngkin holds a 49% job approval rating, and 39% disapproval.
“Over 1 in 10 voters who approve of Youngkin (13%) plan to back Spanberger, while none who disapprove of the Governor plan to support Earle-Sears,” Kimball said.
The economy is the top issue facing Virginia for 39% of voters, followed by threats to democracy (16%), healthcare (10%), immigration (9%), education (7%), and housing affordability (6%).
“Those who say the economy is the top issue facing the state break for Spanberger, 53% to 46%, typically a group that breaks for the Republican candidate, like in New Jersey, where voters who say the economy is the top issue break for the Republican Ciattarelli over Democrat Sherrill for governor, 59% to 39%,” Kimball said.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Virginia survey was conducted October 30-31, 2025. The overall sample of Virginia very likely voters/those who have already voted, n=880, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, previous vote history, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data (Aristotle).
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text (list provided by Aristotle), and a probability panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies, with additional panel responses provided by CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College / Nexstar Media.
FULL RESULTS
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