Key events
Two polls suggest three early questions for election night – snap analysis
Jakub Krupa
The two polls – remember: these are not exit polls and we should treat them with caution – would appear to suggest three early talking points as we brace for a long wait this evening.
The first, a pretty erm fundamental one, is: will the actual results be anywhere near these numbers?
If confirmed, that would be a seismic change in Hungarian politics and Viktor Orbán would be out of office after 16 years in power, with all sorts of major consequences for Hungary, Europe, Ukraine and beyond.
But there will be plenty people looking at them with some scepticism, not least among Fidesz and Orbán supporters.
For example, Gergely Gulyás, Orbán’s chief of staff, told reporters he still trusted Fidesz would have a majority in the new parliament. We won’t know until we get the actual results.
The second question, assuming the polls got more right than wrong, focuses on Tisza’s exact result which they suggest could even be on the verge of having a two-thirds majority in the next parliament.
Whether they have 132 or 133 votes may feel like a small difference, but it would have major implications for their ability to rewire the state and reverse some of Orbán’s reforms, which would be critical for Hungary’s relations with the EU and unblocking access to EU funds.
Finally, will the radical-right Mi Hazank make it to the parliament or not? When every seat counts, their five or six seats could be the difference between different scenarios.
Two new pre-election day polls suggest significant opposition lead
Two polls conducted before the vote and released as the polling stations closed appeared to suggest a likely win for the opposition Tisza party.
BUT, BUT, BUT, as explained before and I cannot stress this enough, these are not exit polls, but normal polls conducted before the election, and lots of caveats apply, so we should treat them with caution.
According to a 21 Kutatóközpont poll for Telex, Tisza was expected to poll at around 55%, Fidesz-KDNP 38%, Mi Hazank 5%, DK 1% and MKKP 1%, suggesting the opposition party could have as many as 132 seats in the 199-seat parliament.
Separately, a Median poll, also conducted before the election on 2,283 adult Hungarians, showed similar results giving Tisza 135 seats in the next parliament.
But remember, remember, remember these are not exit polls and there are lots of caveats as explained before.
We really need to wait for the official results.
Poll close in Hungary
The polls are now closed.
Let me get you the limited polling data we have, subject to previous caveats and restrictions.
Tl;dr: these are not exit polls, and so don’t read too much into them unless they get confirmed by official results.
The latest turnout data show the record-high 77.8% of the electorate cast their votes by 18:30.
That’s easily the highest turnout ever.
No exit polls tonight
Reminder: there are no exit polls.
We will get some polls after once the voting closes at 7pm, but these will be just normal polls with fieldwork in the last few days that had not been published before.
Given how wildly diverging the polls have been so far in this campaign, it is very much TBC as to whether they will match the final results.
So let’s take them more as a suggestion of what could happen than some sort of authoritative gospel.
Partial official results are expected to start coming from 8pm local time (7pm UK), and we should get a clear(er) picture of what happened later tonight.
Government figures appear to imply voting irregularities
Jakub Krupa
Keep an eye on the Fidesz leadership’s reaction to tonight’s results.
When asked this week, Viktor Orbán and his aides repeatedly suggested they would be prepared to concede if the opposition won the vote, even as they maintained their confidence in securing another term.
However, in the last few hours a number of senior figures made comments that appeared to question the integrity of the electoral process, with government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs posting about alleged “attempted election fraud linked to the Tisza party.”
Balázs Orbán, the PM’s political director who introduced the US vice-president JD Vance at a side event earlier this week, also made similar allegations, talking about “a wave of reports on election fraud and aggressive actions linked to the Tisza party.”
For what it’s worth Tisza’s Magyar decisively rejected these suggestions.
“Claims that anyone is preparing violent actions or planning to occupy buildings after the polls close are the usual scaremongering and lies from Fidesz. Such attempts to sow division are likely coming from Russian advisers present in the country. This kind of fake news is nothing more than the usual weak and desperate fearmongering and disinformation from Fidesz,” he said on X.
It’s important to note that so far there are no independently confirmed incidents of vote irregularities, and international OSCE observers are watching the vote very closely. They are due to report on their findings tomorrow morning.
But it’s worth keeping an eye on this government narrative in the coming hours, particularly should the result be disappointing for Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz.
Tisza supporters hopeful as they wait for results over beers and pretzels
Flora Garamvolgyi
near Tisza party’s election night at Batthyány tér
As I walked up to the press tent on the Buda side of the river, I saw Tisza supporters gathering for the watch party having beers and pretzels in front of a massive screen that reads “System change now”.
The mood at Batthyány Square is joyful and optimistic, people seem to have a genuine good time despite the chilly weather. Somewhat symbolically, the opposition’s supporters here have a direct view of the parliament from where they are sitting.
Hungary votes – in pictures
Good ‘vibes’ give Budapest hopes for opposition win
Jakub Krupa
in Budapest’s 14th district
Making the most of a beautiful day in Budapest, I spent a large part of the day zooming around Budapest (using the city’s great bike paths!) and chatting with voters.
In the 14th district of Budapest, I spoke with several people voting in the polling stations on Ajtósi Dürer sor.
Atilla, 35, told me that he was confident about the result because of “the vibes” in the city and the country. “It will be really big change,” he told me confidently.
But where was that confidence coming from, I ask. “[It’s] because of the vibes in Hungary,” he replied with a cheeky smile. “It’s the vibes, [everyone is] so passionate, and I’m hearing it’s not just in Budapest, like four years ago; it’s better.”
How much a potential change of government would mean to him?
No words to say how much. Too much.
Separately, Barbara and Margit, 21, also expressed some hope about the result – but they struck a more cautious note.
“I feel really hopeful. We finally have a chance to change the government,” Margit said.
But Barbara said she wanted to stay “realistic” before the results come in.
“I thought last time around that the opposition seemed pretty strong and it wasn’t [in the end]. I’m trying to not get my hopes up, but we will see. I hope something changes today.”
She added that if the opposition wins,
“It will mean a lot – not just for us as a country, but also for Europe in general. I have seen quite a few posts about the Czech Republic and different countries, all waiting for [the results of] our election.”
Voters in Budapest for change, but remain nervous about outcome
Flora Garamvolgyi
in Budapest’s 5th district
I went to a few polling stations today to get a sense of how Budapest residents in the heart of the city are feeling about today’s elections.
Most of them weren’t sure about the outcome, despite most polls showing a confident lead for Tisza, but expressed hope. Some young voters said they feel like they are witnessing a historic moment.
“I really hope there will be a change of government,” Fruzsi, 22, told me at Erzsébet Square, next to the famous Budapest ferris wheel, right after she cast her vote. “My experience is that there are so many angry people because they are lying to us.”
She says she is really bothered by the intense propaganda the government is pushing on voters.
Gergő, 36, seemed a little more nervous about the results. He said he and others anticipated change during previous elections, too, and were unpleasantly surprised by the outcome. So now he is more cautious and approaches today with an “anything is possible” attitude.
“But I am anticipating change. At least I’m hoping. … This arrogant political style from the government, and that they are inciting hate and attacking everyone, from teachers to judges and all ethnic groups, is awful,” he told me, adding that when the government is done with attacking Zelenskyy, they’ll find a new enemy.
Mária, 81, is also hopeful, but she is hoping for a very different outcome than Fruzsi and Gergő, rooting for the ruling party, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz.
“I trust that he’ll protect our country,” she told me, adding that she doesn’t think the war is the biggest threat looming over Hungary, but rather “all of these extremist people who don’t think the way they should.” She said people should not have too high expectations for the government because they don’t have the budget to execute everything, and is hopeful that it’ll be another supermajority for Orbán.
I am now heading over to the international press room at the Tisza event – after making sure I’m properly caffeinated for the long night ahead…
‘It’s going to be very exciting’ – what voters tell us on the ground in Budapest
in Budapest
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