Vision Pro demand higher than expected; returns down to 1% – Kuo

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Vision Pro demand is higher than Apple initially anticipated, with US shipments anticipated to hit 200-250k items this 12 months.

While there was hypothesis about how many individuals solely purchased Vision Pro to expertise it earlier than sending it again it on the finish of the 14-day return window, he estimates that the present return price has dropped to simply 1% …

Kuo famous that transport occasions peaked at effectively over a month, with some pre-orders positioned on January 19 getting transport dates into early March. This has since decreased to only a few days, suggesting that manufacturing is now preserving tempo with demand.

Vision Pro transport time has now improved to 3–5 days (early March). The transport time after pre-orders opened on 19 January was in early March, that means that though Vision Pro offered out after pre-orders opened due to early adopters shopping for it, demand for the gadget declined quickly and has stayed the identical.

Vision Pro demand higher than anticipated

He stated that present estimates of 2024 gross sales are significantly higher than Apple initially anticipated, although the ranges he cites are massive.

U.S. shipments are anticipated to be 200,000–250,000 items this 12 months, higher than Apple’s authentic estimate of 150,000–200,000 items, however that is nonetheless a distinct segment market.

Apple has requested suppliers to improve manufacturing, which Kuo believes is due to a mixture of comparatively excessive US demand and plans to roll out gross sales to different international locations within the coming months.

Returns now much less than 1%

Kuo says that he’s been ready to go to a manufacturing line devoted to the restore and refurbishment of Vision Pro returns, and that his evaluation suggests return charges at the moment are beneath 1%. This means that, with the preliminary launch hype behind it, these shopping for the product at the moment have a good suggestion of what they’re shopping for and why.

No signal but of a less expensive mannequin

It’s broadly believed that Vision Pro was Apple’s try to produce essentially the most spectacular product, with restricted concern over the price of the gadget. The firm is anticipated to observe up with a decrease value mannequin which is able to seemingly drop the EyeSight function as a part of its value financial savings.

Kuo says that his supply-chain investigations have up to now discovered no proof of this, and he due to this fact believes work on a less expensive mannequin isn’t but formally underway.

9to5Mac’s Take

As we’ve famous earlier than, Kuo was as soon as essentially the most dependable Apple analyst round, with rock-solid provide chain sources, however now posts quite a lot of hypothesis. My interpretation is that his change of employment signifies that he not will get to spend a lot time on the bottom in China speaking with Apple suppliers.

Certainly the extensive ranges he cites for each Apple’s expectations, and present tendencies, appear far more indicative of an informed guess than something based mostly on exhausting information.

On the 1% return price, perception into the variety of items being refurbished is useful, however you possibly can’t specific that as a share except you realize gross sales numbers – and Kuo doesn’t. I’m, although, prepared to imagine that return charges may have dropped to negligible ranges now that we’re previous the purpose of being simply wanting to attempt it out for themselves.

As for the worldwide rollout, there have been stories of launching in China in April or May, and it appears seemingly that it’s going to launch in Europe both earlier than then or on the identical time. It does appear to be these in another international locations could not have too lengthy to wait.

Photo by Mylo Kaye on Unsplash

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