Yet another spat over territory is rocking the troubled US-Canada relationship – and it’s not a result of a Donald Trump threat to turn his northern neighbor into a 51st state.
This week, Canadian leader Mark Carney once again urged Trump to “respect Canadian sovereignty” after the Financial Times reported that State Department officials had met three times since last April with leaders of a group that wants to see the province of Alberta secede from Canada.
The group, named the Alberta Prosperity Project, has been pushing for a referendum on Alberta independence and, according to an X post by one of its leaders, plans to ask US Treasury officials for a $500 billion line of credit to “support the transition to a free and independent Alberta.”
A White House official downplayed US involvement to CNN, saying that “administration officials meet with a number of civil society groups. No support or commitments were conveyed.”
But the reports have sparked new anger in Canada as it seeks to present a united front against the Trump administration’s tariffs and threats to its territory. The leader of British Columbia, a neighboring province, likened the outreach by the Albertan group to “treason.”
Here’s what we know about the Alberta independence movement and the likelihood the province could break off from the rest of Canada.
Alberta is an oil-rich province in western Canada, roughly the size of Texas.
Home to about 5 million people, the province is crossed by the Rockies mountain range and tourist destinations including Banff and Lake Louise.
The province has a unique political and cultural identity, driven by its strong energy and agricultural sectors, commitment to economic individualism, and low taxes. Frequently dubbed “the energy province,” Alberta has oil sands that account for about 84% of Canada’s total crude oil production.
Politically, it is considered the bastion of conservatism in Canada, though its urban centers, Calgary and Edmonton, are more progressive.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been friendly with Trump and other Republicans, paying a visit to the president’s private Mar-a-Lago club last January. That’s come even as her counterparts in other provinces have banded together against Trump and his threats to annex Canada and undermine its economy.
Separatist Albertans have long felt like their interests are not well represented in Ottawa.
They argue the federal government’s efforts to stop climate change are holding back Alberta’s oil industry; that they pay more than they get back through federal taxes; and that their conservative values are drowned out by the more liberal and populous eastern provinces.
“Western alienation has existed since confederation and certainly since Alberta became a province in 1905,” said Michael Solberg, a partner at strategic advisory firm New West Public Affairs, who served as a political staffer in former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government.
“Though, it tends to rise during periods when Albertans feel Ottawa is making decisions that directly harm their way of life.”
Federally mandated COVID-19 lockdowns and more than a decade of Liberal leadership in Ottawa precipitated just that, and the temperature has only picked up as the rest of Canada has united in patriotism against Trump.
Soon after Carney’s Liberals rode a wave of anti-Trump sentiment to win the 2025 federal election in April, the Alberta legislature passed a law making it easier to organize a referendum on independence.
However, the separatist movement lacks a leader or structured campaign and is “driven by a handful of outspoken activists and mostly amplified online,” Solberg said. None of the separatist political parties currently hold seats in the Alberta legislature.
The return of Trump, a pro-oil conservative, to the White House has buoyed the secession movement and, for some, reshaped its end goal.
At a rally for Alberta independence last summer attended by CNN, supporters donned MAGA-style “Make Alberta Great Again” hats, praising Trump as “North America’s best asset” and a potential ally for secessionists.
While most attendees at the rally wanted to see Alberta become a fully independent country, some showed their support for another possibility: that Alberta could become the 51st US state.
In February, a billboard appeared along the highway between Calgary and Edmonton, urging onlookers to tell Premier Smith that Alberta ought to “Join the USA!” superimposed over a picture of her shaking hands with Trump. It was funded by a group which bears the tagline “Canadians for the 51st State.”
Top Trump officials have also showed support for Albertans seeking independence.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Alberta is a “natural partner for the US” in an interview with the right-wing TV station Real America’s Voice last week.
“They have great resources. The Albertans are very independent people,” he said, adding he had heard there may be a referendum soon.
“People want sovereignty. They want what the US has got,” he said.
Bessent claimed Canada won’t let Alberta build an oil pipeline to the Pacific, and said “I think we should let them come down into the US.”
It is “highly likely” that Alberta will call a referendum on independence, said Solberg. Only twice before has a Canadian province called such a plebiscite, both times in French-speaking Quebec. Most recently, in 1995, voters there only narrowly decided to remain.
“All signs point to a referendum this Fall on whether Alberta should remain in Confederation,” Solberg said. “The stakes are high and it’s starting to feel real.”
Another separatist group called Stay Free Alberta has been gathering signatures for a petition to ask the provincial government to call a referendum, and some meetings have drawn large crowds. The group has until May to collect 177,732 signatures from eligible voters.
However, public opinion polling shows support for Alberta independence remains relatively low. A January survey by Pollara Strategic Insights found just 19% of Albertans said they would support secession.
However, a significant proportion of people supporting the referendum may be “symbolic separatists,” said Lori Williams, professor of political science at Mount Royal University in Calgary.
“Some of the people lining up to sign a petition to force a referendum on separation said they simply wanted to send a message to Ottawa so that Alberta would have a stronger negotiating position.”
Another citizen-led petition for a referendum, from the anti-secession side, has already been approved, gathering more than 400,000 signatures.
Some of the loudest critics of the idea come from Indigenous communities, whose treaties with the Canadian state are older than the province of Alberta. Under pressure from that community, the government added a provision to the referendum bill that guarantees their treaty rights whatever the result.
Smith, the province’s leader, has said she does not support secession but refused to denounce those lobbying for it, calling their grievances “legitimate.”
Even if the referendum were to pass, the process of seceding would be “extraordinarily complex and destabilizing,” Solberg said.
There is no roadmap for what secession would entail, Solberg said, especially with questions on whether the end goal is to be independent or to join the US.
“These are unresolved questions, or at least do not yet have great answers, and the legal and economic risks remain immense.”
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