Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Ending? Onchain Data Says Yes

Key takeaways:

• BTC’s 700% rally from $15,500 to $124,500 suggests a market top in 2 to 3 months, based on past cycles.

• Bitcoin supply in profit has been elevated for 273 days, signaling a potential cycle peak soon. 

• Bitcoin risks dropping into the $90,000-$100,000 range if the psychological support at $110,000 is lost.

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to reclaim $114,000 on Thursday, as a convergence of onchain metrics signals waning bullish momentum and a classic setup for a market late in its cycle. 

The Bitcoin market is nearing a cycle top

Bitcoin has had an incredible performance over the last three years, rising as much as 700% to an all-time high of $124,500 last week from a cycle low of $15,500 reached in November 2022.

When compared with past cycles, this performance suggests that BTC price is roughly two to three months away from the cycle top, according to market intelligence firm Glassnode. 

Related: Bitcoin analysts point to ‘manipulation’ as BTC price falls to 17-day low

In its latest Week On-chain report, Glassnode said:

“In both the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, the all-time highs were reached roughly 2–3 months beyond where we are in the current cycle, by relative timing.”

As of Aug. 21, approximately 91% of all Bitcoin were in profit, and have remained above the +1 standard deviation band for more than 273 days in the current cycle, as shown in the chart below. This makes it the second-longest on record, behind the 2015–2018 cycle at 335 days. 

This implies that the present cycle has delivered a comparable duration to that which has preceded cycle tops in prior cycles. 

When considered against the backdrop of the waves of onchain profit-taking over the past two years, the data reveals a similarity to previous cycle tops 

Analyzing the cumulative profit realized (in BTC terms) by long-term holders (LTHs) — investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days — from the point of reaching a new cycle all-time high, until the final peak of the cycle, revealed that LTHs have realized more profit than in prior cycles. 

Such heightened levels of profit-taking by LTHs, comparable to past euphoric phases, add “another dimension through the lens of sell-side pressure,” Glassnode explained, adding:

“Taken together, these signals reinforce the view that the current cycle is firmly in its historically late phase.”

Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital said that if Bitcoin is going to peak in its bull market based on historical halving cycles, that would be in mid-September/mid-October 2025.

“That’s only 1-2 months away.”

Bitcoin price rejected at $114,000 

On Wednesday, Bitcoin bounced strongly from the $112,000 support level, but the price was rejected at $114,000, strengthening the case for further downside.

This level “needs to be convincingly lost for BTC to go lower,” said analyst Rekt Capital in an X post, adding:

“A weekly close relative to $114K will also be key.”

Below it, the $112,000–$110,000 region remains untested in the latest drawdown, aligning with the 100-day simple moving average. 

If Bitcoin faces deeper pullbacks, this zone could serve as a “great buy opportunity,” according to MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe.

For now, bulls are required to aggressively defend the $110,000 to $112,000 zone, to avoid a return into the $100,000 to $90,000 range, according to Daan Crypto Trades.

“Anything lower and I think the structure is going to be looking a bit weak.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.