Melania Trump Documentary Box Office: Will It Work?

If all goes well, First Lady Melania Trump and Amazon MGM Studios will be able to boast the biggest opening in a decade for a documentary when her new film, the Brett Ratner-directed Melania, unfurls in more than 1,500 theaters across the U.S. this weekend.

That translates to making enough to pass up Angel Studios’ doc After Death, which launched to exactly $5 million from 2,645 theaters in 2023, according to Comscore.

While leading tracking service NRG is indeed predicting a launch in the $5 million range for Melania, exhibitors aren’t so bullish, based on sluggish ticket sales. Some think it could do far less. Social media is rife with theater maps showing auditoriums where only a smattering of tickets have been sold (it’s hard to remember a doc that’s been so scrutinized in terms of its opening number). But in ultra-conservative hubs, such as El Plano, Texas, many shows are nearly full. And on Friday, some showings at two of the country’s busiest cinemas, AMC Lincoln Square in New York City and AMC Century City in Los Angeles, have sold a decent number of tickets. The bigger question is whether it can sustain an audience in the weeks ahead before it goes to Prime.

If Melania does get to $5 million, it would also be one of the top nationwide openings ever for a doc that isn’t a concert pic or a Disney nature title. The major caveat: most documentaries, including many of Michael Moore’s films, opened in limited runs, although Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 opened wide to a record-setting $23.9 million from 868 theaters on its way to becoming the top-grossing doc of all time domestically ($119.2 million).

Amazon MGM revealed Melania‘s theater count, along with marketing highlights, on Tuesday. The studio believes the final publicity push, including a glitzy premiere Jan. 29 at the newly renamed Trump-Kennedy Center that will be attended by President Donald Trump alongside his wife, will ignite sales. (He’s also supporting the film via Truth Social.)

Melania is an enormous gamble for all involved — not to mention that the true First Lady of the weekend box office will be Rachel McAdams, whose new thriller Send Help, from 20th Century and Disney, is tracking to top the chart with $14 million-plus.

Granted, the two films couldn’t be more different. But opening any movie at the struggling box office, not to mention a doc, isn’t for the faint of heart, and Melania Trump — along with the White House — risks having to endure headlines calling the movie a bomb if it only clears $2 million to $4 million. It could also call into question the strength of Trump’s core support base.

And then there’s Ratner. Melania is his first film since he was cancelled nearly a decade ago after being accused of sexual misconduct and harassment. (He has denied any wrongdoing.)

Amazon MGM shelled out a hefty $40 million to license the history-making documentary — it’s the first time a film featuring and made by a sitting First Lady has appeared on the big screen — along with a docuseries for Prime from Melania Trump and Ratner. (It has yet to be announced when Melania will hit Amazon’s streaming service.)

The film was shot during the 20 days leading up to the 2025 inauguration.

“Step inside Melania Trump’s world as she orchestrates inauguration plans, navigates the complexities of the White House transition, and moves her family back to the Nation’s Capital. With exclusive footage capturing critical meetings, private conversations, and never-before-seen environments, Melania showcases Mrs. Trump’s return to one of the world’s most powerful roles,” Amazon MGM said in its preview memo.

Paramount and Disney also bid for rights to Melania in the early part of 2025, following Donald Trump’s reelection and the glory days of the MAGA movement, but much has changed for the president, whose policies have seen his popularity ratings tumble and prompted division within his own circles. And the doc opens in the wake of the Jan. 24 death of an ICU nurse in Minnesota who was shot by ICE agents.

Still, the doc is a chance for Melania Trump to show that she isn’t just the wife of the president as she pursues a producing career via her new company, Muse. She and fellow Melania producer Marc Beckman, her longtime adviser and manager, have been a driving force throughout the marketing campaign, much of which has relied on Fox News to spread the word. And while Amazon may have pitched the idea of simulcasting the premiere in 21 theaters nationwide, those who will attend the screenings were organized by friends and organizations hand-picked by the First Lady and her team, according to sources.

Melania is also hoping for a major boost on Jan. 28 when the New York Stock Exchange provides a live broadcast of the First Lady ringing the NYSE Opening Bell to mark the upcoming release of the film. Amazon MGM bought pricey spots in CBS’s NFL AFC Wild Card game on Jan. 11 and Fox’s divisional game on Jan. 17. Further enticements: a commemorative movie ticket and popcorn buckets to celebrate the release in theaters. 

Sources close to the project say Amazon MGM is spending $35 million on the marketing campaign; the domestic spend is likely in the $15 million range, while another $10 million is being spent overseas. That’s as much as some might spend on a smaller feature, but not a documentary. Amazon MGM hasn’t yet provided an entire list of countries where Melania will play overseas, but the international campaign included placements in cities including Mexico City, Tokyo and London, according to Amazon’s preview note. It will also play in parts of the Middle East, according to sources.

In the U.S., $3.5 million was spent on national linear TV ads between Dec. 22 and Jan. 23, according to iSpot, a media measurement and tracking firm. That’s less than would be spent on a narrative feature film, including Send Help, though the figure doesn’t include spots airing during the NFL conference championship games last weekend, which can cost upwards of $1 million, or last Saturday’s UFC fight.

The money spent paid off, with household impressions reaching more than 461 million. Top reach by networks was Fox News (37 percent), CBS (8.8 percent), Fox (7.2 percent), ABC (6.8 percent) and Hallmark (5.7 percent). Outside of NFL games (10.8 percent), top programs by reach were all Fox News shows: The Five (7.6 percent), The Ingraham Angle (4.7 percent), America’s Newsroom (3.7 percent) and Fox & Friends (2.9 percent). And the launch of the film’s trailer included an integration with Fox News that featured an interview with the First Lady (she spoke about the importance of a theatrical release). In more recent days, Melania spots have also appeared on CNN.

In terms of trailer play, Melania isn’t skewing conservative and is instead targeting older females, playing before such films as The Housemaid. And distributors with upcoming docs also want in on the action; Neon and Universal International are playing a trailer for Baz Luhrmann’s upcoming EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert before Melania, for example.

Amazon MGM is not previewing Melania for critics, but the First Lady and Ratner held a private screening at the White House last weekend, just as a major snowstorm hit much of the United States, and as Minneapolis erupted in violence over the ICE shooting of a protester.

The black-tie event, which was not promoted or advertised, took place in the East Room of the White House and attracted about 70 VIP guests, including Queen Rania of Jordan; Zoom CEO Eric Yuan; Apple CEO Tim Cook; New York Stock Exchange CEO Lynn Martin; AMD CEO Lisa Su; Mike Tyson; socialite and Fiat heiress Azzi Agnelli; self-help guru Tony Robbins; fashion designer Adam Lippes; and photographer Ellen von Unwerth, who photographed the poster for the film. Many of the invitees were subsequently slammed for attending the screening because of the ICE shooting.

Unlike Melania, the Sam Raimi-directed Send Help is expected to overperform (some cinema owners are predicting as much as $16 million or $17 million). The darkly comic horror-thriller stars McAdams and Dylan O’Brien as coworkers stranded on a desert island, and sports a glowing 93 percent critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes. According to THR‘s review, the R-rated pic “boasts an audacious concept that is superbly realized by Raimi’s filmmaking, which milks every bizarre situation for all it’s worth.”

Jason Statham’s newest action pic, Shelter, also enters the fray and is hoping for a domestic debut in the high single-digits for Black Bear’s new U.S. distribution arm.