The 98th Academy Awards are still about six months away, but the awards race kicks off in earnest in the fall, when most of the year’s top films are finally seen by audiences. Some of the bigger budget titles that are expected to contend — like Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good, and Avatar: Fire and Ash — will go straight to the multiplexes, while many others will try to pick up steam by playing the festival circuit.
Cannes kicks things off in late spring, followed by Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. This year, Cannes’ Palme d’Or was bestowed upon Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident, which instantly propelled the multinationally produced thriller by the Iranian dissident filmmaker into the running not just for Best International Feature, but for several other top prizes as well. It Was Just an Accident screened at Telluride, too, where Panahi was awarded the Silver Medallion, but it failed to place in the top three for TIFF’s new International People’s Choice Award. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s losing momentum; it just means there’s a lot of competition this year, especially among non-English language contenders. These are some of the other films that set themselves apart this festival season.
‘Hamnet’ Took Home the TIFF People’s Choice Award
Festival season couldn’t have gone better for Hamnet. After taking Telluride by storm, Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel (who co-wrote the script) became the talk of TIFF and walked away with the People’s Choice Award… an honor which usually goes to TIFF world premieres, which Hamnet wasn’t. The PCA is often a precursor to a Best Picture nomination, and this beautiful and moving story about love, loss, and art seems like a particularly strong contender. Even better are star Jessie Buckley’s chances. She plays Agnes, Shakespeare’s wife and the character with whom audiences will most identify.
But Hamnet’s Oscar hopes don’t stop there. Paul Mescal will almost certainly receive a nod for his role as the Bard (it’s more of a lead, though he could also be considered supporting), and Zhao should be a factor in the categories of Director, Editing, and Adapted Screenplay. Although its aesthetic is down-to-earth compared to films like Frankenstein and Wicked: For Good, nominations for cinematography, production design, costumes, and score aren’t out of the question. Finally, Jacobi Jupe — who plays the title character — gives one of the best child performances in recent memory. It’s rare for the Academy to nominate kids, and boys especially, but it would be well-deserved.
‘Sentimental Value’
Joachim Trier’s follow-up to The Worst Person in the World also stars Renate Reinsve as Nora, the daughter of a past-his-prime film director who abandoned her and her sister in their youth. Sentimental Value trades in some of the same themes as Hamnet and gives it a run for its money in terms of emotion and performances. The film won the Grand Prix at the Cannes Film Festival (essentially second place) and finished second for the International People’s Choice Award at TIFF.
Critics and audiences have been singing its praises, and it has already been selected as Norway’s entry for the Oscars’ best international film category, where it poses a real threat to win. It’ll likely receive a Best Picture nomination, as well as attention for its direction and original screenplay. Reinsve, Inga Ibsdotter, and Elle Fanning are running strong, but Stellan Skarsgård might go on to be the story of awards season. This veteran actor is well-respected in the industry, and his career-best performance comes on the heels of an iconic turn in Andor, for which he was snubbed.
‘Frankenstein’
Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein premiered at the Venice Film Festival, followed by a sneak preview at Telluride, before its Toronto premiere, where the epic horror adaptation was largely filmed. Its hometown advantage may have helped it place second for TIFF’s PCA, despite lukewarm reviews from those other festivals.
Its TIFF success gave it the second life it needed to stay in the Oscar race. Frankenstein‘s prospects are more of a mixed bag, however. It was always going to be competitive in below-the-line categories, such as Production Design, Score, Costumes, and Makeup. However, its momentum out of TIFF could help it secure nominations in the Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actor categories, if Netflix campaigns it as a priority. Critics have singled out Jacob Elordi’s sympathetic and mostly silent portrayal of the Creature.
‘No Other Choice’
Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice rebounded from getting blanked at Venice to win the International People’s Choice Award at TIFF, and it became one of the films with the best buzz in the process. Like Sentimental Value, it has already been selected by South Korea to compete for the Best International Feature at the Academy Awards, where, along with It Was Just an Accident, it’ll be extremely competitive.
What audiences seemed to like about No Other Choice is the way it balances its disparate tones. The film is relevant, funny, dark, and thrilling, and has been compared favorably to Parasite. Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay are within the realm of possibility, while an acting nod for star Lee Byung-hun may be more of a nice surprise.
‘Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery’
It’s practically a tradition at this point. Rian Johnson’s Knives Out movies premiere at TIFF, where they play like gangbusters. They stay in the awards conversation through the fall and winter, pick up some stray precursor nominations, then have to settle for a lone screenplay nod come Oscar time. That’s probably exactly what will happen this year.
Still, if we’re going to play along, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (which came in third for the PCA) has heavier themes and more specific production design than its predecessors and could sneak into Best Picture or some crafts categories. Netflix has a lot of movies to juggle this year, but Josh O’Connor is excellent as the conflicted priest at the film’s center. And though she doesn’t get a ton of screen time as part of the crowded ensemble, Glenn Close does deliver one of the film’s most memorable speeches and could be nominated for a supporting actress award.
Also in the Running…
Films like The Smashing Machine, Rental Family, Roofman, Eternity, and Christy had their award hopes dashed when they didn’t place in the People’s Choice Award category. That may mean a best picture win is out of the question, but it doesn’t mean a nomination (or two or three) isn’t still possible. Benny Safdie did win the Silver Lion at Venice for his direction, and Dwayne Johnson is still widely predicted to receive his first best actor nomination for The Smashing Machine. Akira Emoto moved up the supporting actor rankings after Rental Family premiered. Roofman is a refreshing change of pace for director Derek Cianfrance, and the stars, Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst, deliver award-worthy performances. It could get a second wind from the comedy/musical categories at the Golden Globes.
Sydney Sweeney’s Christy outmatched fellow fighting flick The Smashing Machine at TIFF, which may have put her in the running for best actress. And a lone production design nomination for the afterlife-set Eternity would be fun. Finally, though it only played Telluride (which doesn’t dole out awards quite like the other festivals), Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere made a strong impression and remains in contention for Best Picture, Lead Actor for Jeremy Allen White, and Supporting Actor for Jeremy Strong.
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